Prediction - JFK

I suppose this isn't a shock, but I'm predicting a Kerry win. The weekend polls seem to show Kerry surging both nationally and state-to-state. Prior to this weekend, I thought Kerry would eke it out with just over 270 EVs, now I think it will be:

Kerry 311 -- Bush 227

Of the Battleground States, Kerry will take PA, FL, NH, OH, MN, WI, MI, IA, and NM. Bush will NOT win HI, ME, NJ or OR, in spite of Faux News infatuations.

Of course, on Nov. 3 Bush will challenge the results in Florida and Ohio, the two biggest states among the Battlegrounds, and ones where the GOP controls the machinery. A reversal of those two would make it 274-264 for Bush. Trust me, we should expect this as inevitable - Rove has a history of doing it.

How would they challenge such a seemingly large defeat? First, they will allege (in the form of lawsuits) massive voter fraud in Ohio, basing it on the invalidated voter challenge process as ruled on late last night. This will undoubtedly make it to the Supreme Court, which will, by a 5-4 margin overrule the lower courts. As a result, the GOP will claim that Ohio was stolen and demand the state legislature step in. The state legislature in Ohio is, of course, majority republican. And in Florida, where the legislature is also republican, Jeb Bush will come up with some excuse that the voting machines malfunctioned and there is no way to recount because there are no paper trails. Thus, in Ohio and Florida, the GOP-dominated state legislatures will vote in their own set of electors, defying the will of the majority of their citizens.

Kerry will, not surprisingly, challenge their actions via lawsuit. Eventually making it up to the Supreme Court, the case will be decided in favor of Bush. However, when the electors arrive to be counted before Congress, the Democrats will challenge the Florida and Ohio electors, thus throwing the election to the House. They will, of course, pick Bush. In the meantime, however, the Senate will convene and choose a Vice President. If the Dems are able to gain a majority, they will pick John Edwards, who will be acting President until the House sorts things out.

Sound crazy? Well how crazy sounding was it in 2000 to say, before November 7, that massive voting mistakes in Florida would ultimately lead to the Supreme Court deciding who the 43rd President was?


UPDATE: After speaking with the Capital Gangster, I realized I needed an all-important qualifier to this post - basically, if cooler heads prevail at some during this process (i.e., Jesus speaks to 'W' and tells him to concede) the whole mess can be prevented. 2:50 PM.