Ohi-don't think so...

If I've heard it once, I've heard it a thousand times. Ohio is the new Florida in this presidential election. I don't think so. I expect Bush to win Ohio, but it won't matter because he'll lose New Hampshire, Missouri and Florida. Do the electoral math, it spells doom for W.

What I don't understand is, in the discussion of Red states and Blue states and what either candidate would have to do to win in the battleground states, why don't I hear much about Bush's slide in some of the Red states. I hear a lot about swing voters, can Kerry hold on to Minnesota and Oregon (barely Gore states in 2000), or can Kerry win without carrying any southern states.

I was watching Hardball tonight and they actually did, for the first time I'm aware, talk about a state typically considered solidly Republican - Colorado. Polls show Bush is only slightly ahead there. Same is true of Virginia. The latest Zogby poll actually has Kerry ahead in West Virginia. These are all states Bush won in 2000.

Funny how money has kind of disappeared as an issue in this campaign. Kerry's amazing fund raising has done a lot to mitigate the Bush advantage, but I also think the fact that Bush has had to spend so much already just to stay slightly behind has really hurt him. True, he can spend freely all August long while Kerry's got to adhere to public funding limits, but Bush is still going to need every dime not to lose any of the close states he won last time.

Furthermore, if Bush is faced with having to spend cash in Colorado, Virginia and West Virginia just to make sure he doesn't lose those states, is that not a reason for the GOP to be really concerned?