The First Debate

Round one to John Kerry. No doubt. Kerry was calm and cool while delivering shot after shot of heavy criticism at the President while delivering to the audience his clear, unmistakable position on the critical foreign policy issues. He was outstanding on North Korea, and deftly handled the canard about his vote on the $87 billion. He was very effective in clearly articulating his commitment to defending the country both at home and abroad. Boffo performance.

Bush was poor at best. He started decently enough and really only needed to come off as the "aw-shucks" guy we're all familiar with to walk away from this debate with his dignity intact. He's the incumbant, he only needed a tie to be successful. He couldn't do it though as Kerry's criticisms became more poignant and sharp. Bush began losing his composure, straying from his script, demanding rebuttal minutes that he then fumbled, leading to more damaging blows from Kerry. He communicated a lot of negative emotions through facial expressions and body language.

The only thing "on message" Bush communicated effectively was his infallable belief in his own ability to protect the country and that being a war president is "hard work." I don't think that's what the country really wanted to see. People are looking for a President, but what they saw in Bush was a pissed-off frat boy who'd rather be screwing around with his cronies than seriously debating critical political issues. Bush had a pretty low bar to cross over, and he couldn't even do that. He failed, badly. This was an unmitigated disaster for the Bush campaign (despite their spin), and if Kerry wins the election, will be regarded as the defining moment of this campaign.

Let's remember the context here - this was supposed to be Bush's strongest subject - the war on terror and homeland security. He was beaten on his own turf. Kerry turned the boat towards Bush and drove right at him. Bush wanted to get the hell out of Dodge. Each candidates' performance at the debate last night, in my mind, reflected quite clearly on the biography of each man. Kerry took the fight to the enemy, never wavered, and showed guts and determination - much as he did in 'Nam. Bush started off well enough, but got bored, agitated, angry and wanted it to be over so he could go back to being the dauphin - much like his Texas Guard career.

The question now, I think, is whether this new twist will be reflected in the polls - will people finally decide they are voting for Kerry more than against Bush. Given the compressed schedule of the debates (Oct. 5 [VP], 8 & 13), things might be a little fluid until the thrid week of the month. If last night's trend continues, I cautiously expect JFK to go in front in the polls around the 20th, leaving him two weeks to finish the thing off. The pressure is on Cheney Tuesday night to restore the Cons' faith that the campaign has some idea of what its doing, because the whispers are starting, at least as far as the blogosphere goes.

Of course, things could change. Kerry could really gaffe it in the next round, or Edwards might get chewed up by the Prince of Darkness. I have no delusions about the fact that Kerry/Edwards still need to be darn-near-perfect to win it, given what they're up against. And of course, there will no doubt be some sort of "October Surprise."

Without a doubt, it will definately be interesting.