Turning the Corner

I heard a clip this morning of the president telling a crowd how jobs were coming back. Then I heard that only 32,000 jobs were added to the US economy in July, far off earlier estimates of over 200,000.

Yeah, we've turned the corner all right, and slammed face-first into a brick wall.

I've been watching the latest spike in oil prices with great interest. See, when the prices first shot up in the spring, I read in several different articles how in the previous ten instances when there was a oil price spike, nine times a recession followed. Seems rather predictable, right?

Now we are seeing a second spike this year, with prices at all-time highs above $44 per barrel. Analysts are saying the prices could go as high as over $50 a barrel by the election.

We also have evidence that job growth is slowing or ceasing all together, consumer spending is down, and the financial markets are really languishing. Doesn't all of this just scream "recession"?

I'll go on the record right now - we will have a recession during the next 12 months. If Bush is still king, he'll tell us we've turned the corner and everything is "superb." If Kerry somehow manages to become President, well, he'll have a disaster on his hands.